2.2 Million Barrel Gap Opens in 2026 Oil Demand Forecasts
A significant gap has emerged in forecasts of global oil demand growth for 2026, according to the International Energy Forum (IEF). The IEF compared projections from OPEC, the IEA, and the US EIA, showing a range of expectations spanning from a contraction of 1.6 million barrels per day to an expansion of 0.6 million barrels per day.
The estimates differ by as much as 3.0 million barrels per day in absolute volume terms, with OPEC projecting total consumption at 105.7 million barrels per day and the EIA at 102.7 million barrels per day. The IEA forecasts a demand drop of 1.2 million barrels per day for non-OECD economies, while OPEC expects an increase of 0.6 million barrels per day.
China's demand is expected to slump under both the IEA and EIA projections, with OPEC alone modeling a modest growth of approximately 100,000 barrels per day. US demand estimates were raised by all three agencies, led by a 2.1 percent increase from the IEA.
The divergence in forecasts comes as immediate market balances are impacted by a government data showing commercial US crude inventories grew by 17.4 million barrels during the week ending August 7. The build was driven by an increase in crude imports and a reduction in exports, leaving stockpiles 2 percent below the five-year seasonal average.