$9 Oil Price Gap: Goldman vs EIA in WTI Forecast Disagreement
Goldman Sachs has forecasted an average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $83 per barrel for Q4, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees it at $74. This discrepancy comes as global oil inventories face unprecedented pressure due to supply losses in the Middle East.
The EIA's August outlook predicts a Q3 average of $81.13 and a full-year average of $80.88 for 2026, which is significantly lower than Goldman's projection. The agency attributes this tightness to US stocks rebuilding and high refinery runs, with commercial crude oil inventories in the United States expected to remain below their five-year low.
OPEC's August report confirms broader tightness, citing a 26.4 million barrel monthly drop in OECD commercial oil inventories, which are now 66.5 million barrels below their five-year average. This has led Goldman analysts to warn of 'net upside risks to oil prices,' emphasizing that the economic risks are larger than initially anticipated.
However, there is a risk of supply normalization and weakening consumption, which could offset the bullish sentiment driving oil prices above $83 in the short term. As global demand contraction continues, the market will closely watch refinery margins and US crude runs to determine the direction of oil prices.