$90 Oil Price Target in Sight as Iran Ceasefire Talks Stall
Oil prices have been steadily climbing towards $90 per barrel, despite comments from an Iranian source that there are no talks on extending the ceasefire between Iran and the US. The lack of a significant move in crude prices suggests that investors expect a gradual de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
The Iranian source stated that the ceasefire did not have an officially defined start date, which means there is no formal deadline to be extended. Iran claims that the US violated the interim agreement within the first 48 hours and subsequently withdrew from it.
Current talks are focused on a potential U.S. return to the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and establishing a timeline for implementing previous commitments. The Iranian side says no significant progress has been made in these negotiations so far.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its historical estimates for global oil demand, with consumption proving stronger than previously assumed. Global oil consumption in 2025 is now estimated at 104.8 million barrels per day, up 300,000 b/d from the previous estimate and 1.1 million b/d higher than a year ago.
The IEA still estimates that the oil market was oversupplied in 2025, with average supply reaching around 106.3 million b/d. The agency expects global oil consumption to reach approximately 105.7 million b/d in 2027, already above the 105.6 million b/d level previously expected for 2029.