$95 Oil Bet Skyrockets as Hormuz Tensions Escalate

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has sent oil prices soaring as traders bet on $95 per barrel, according to prediction market Polymarket. The probability of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reaching this level before September 30 has increased to 57%, up from 50% in recent trading.

The escalation of tensions comes after reports of US forces striking Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island and President Trump's vow to 'hit them very hard', with threats extending to Kharg Island, Iran's principal oil export terminal.

Polymarket's data also shows traders assign a 68% probability to WTI hitting $85 this month. However, the chance of oil reaching $100 has fallen by 18 percentage points to 33%, suggesting some skepticism that the crisis will escalate into a full supply shock.