AI Boom Collides with LNG Demand, Threatening US Gas Supply

A recent study by Chronometer Partners CIO Matthew Smith warns that the US may face a structural natural gas shortage by 2028 due to the growing demand from AI data centers. The firm's 18-month study found that production growth of around 20 Bcf/d by 2030 may be offset by increasing LNG exports, which could reach up to 35 Bcf/day by then.

This 'knife fight' for supply is expected to put pressure on energy costs, potentially reaching 20-30% of AI compute costs if gas prices double or triple. The study suggests that winners in this scenario may include gas producers, nuclear and solar generators, while hyperscalers and equipment suppliers could face rising cost pressures.