Alberta Predicts $2 Billion Surplus Amid Higher Oil Prices

Alberta's government has revised its budget forecast, predicting a $2-billion surplus for 2026-27. This represents an $11.4-billion turnaround from the $9.4-billion deficit projected when the provincial budget was introduced in February.

The increase in revenue is largely driven by higher oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil averaging US$93 a barrel during the first three months of the fiscal year. This is significantly higher than the assumed average price of US$60.50 a barrel in Budget 2026.

Alberta's real GDP growth is expected to increase from 1.8% in budget projections to 2.3% this year, and to 2.5% in 2027. Employment growth is also forecasted at three percent for the year, while the unemployment rate is expected to average 6.6% before falling to 5.9% in 2027.

The fiscal update attributes higher inflation, which is now expected to average 2.6% in 2026, up from 2.1% assumed at budget, to higher energy prices and rising home and auto insurance premiums.