Alberta Surplus Grows as Middle East War Drives Up Oil Prices

Alberta's finances are on track to return to surplus after global energy prices surged in response to the Middle East war. The province's latest fiscal update projects a $2-billion surplus, a significant turnaround from the anticipated $9.4-billion deficit for the 2026 fiscal year.

The increase in oil prices was triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, which choked off oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has averaged just above US$88 per barrel since April, up from the originally predicted US$60.50.

With every dollar increase in WTI, Alberta's treasury gains $680 million. Finance Minister Jason Nixon welcomed the quarterly windfall but warned that energy prices can change quickly and that the government will not commit temporary revenues to permanent expenses.