Alberta's $200B Economic Promise Hinges on Unlikely Assumptions

Economic commentator Lennie Kaplan has suggested that Alberta's economy could benefit by up to $200 billion over the next decade if the province remains within a renewed Canada.

However, this hypothesis is based on modelling that assumes Alberta will nearly double its daily oil production within a decade. Yet, oil companies are already scaling back plans to increase production due to federal government obstructionism and bureaucratic hurdles.

The Major Projects Office, led by Mark Carney, has not facilitated any projects, and Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) have failed to move oil exports forward.

Kaplan's proposal for a new economic deal with the federal government seems unlikely, given Ottawa's disinclination to facilitate oil and gas growth within Canada. In fact, Kaplan himself estimated that Albertans will send $312.4 billion more to Ottawa than they will receive over the next 12 years (2025-2036).

Alberta has been seeking a new deal for generations, with little success. The latest proposal involves leaving the federation due to the federal government's indifference to Alberta's economic needs.