Alberta's $33-a-Barrel Windfall Proves Budget Still an Oil Bet

Alberta's budget has turned from a projected $9.4-billion deficit to a $2-billion surplus thanks to higher-than-expected oil prices.

The province's treasury is benefiting from every dollar that West Texas Intermediate crude trades above its budget assumption, which adds approximately $680 million over a year.

In the first quarter of 2026-27, oil averaged $93 a barrel against a budgeted $60.5, a $33 gap that has significantly impacted Alberta's finances.

The surplus is understated, as it assumes prices will average $73.5 for the full year, which could increase by another $4 billion if the average price rises to $70.