Analysts Cut Gold Price Forecasts Amid Fed Policy Shift
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has released its mid-year survey, revealing that analysts have revised their gold price forecasts for 2026 downward. The survey attributed this shift primarily to the monetary policy stance of the US Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh.
The LBMA reported that gold reached a record high of over $5,600 per ounce in January and despite the downward revision, prices could still climb as much as 18% from recent trading levels by the end of the year. The July poll of 16 analysts placed the highest year-end forecast at $5,100 per ounce, while the average forecast stood at $4,500.
The survey highlighted that ten analysts cited the Fed's response to US inflation data as their main concern, five pointed to Iran and broader Middle East instability, and one highlighted central banks' appetite for gold as the key driver. This suggests that geopolitical tensions are no longer the dominant factor in price expectations, but rather the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.