Argentina's Wheat Market Splits Between Spot Caution and Forward Buying

The Argentine wheat market is experiencing a split between cautious spot demand and aggressive forward export buying. While domestic flour millers are hesitant to purchase due to high costs and price volatility, exports for the 2026/27 crop are seeing strong activity.

Spot-market buying has slowed significantly, with weekly transactions totaling no more than 300,000 metric tons, approximately 11 million bushels. This is consistent with the final stretch of the commercial cycle before the next harvest.

Milling industry caution stems from significant difficulties in maintaining positive processing margins at current price levels. Many buyers have stepped back from aggressive purchasing and are waiting for available supplies to return to lower price ranges.

However, export demand is shifting focus to the 2026/27 wheat crop. Buying interest has shifted toward December-delivery contracts, supported by active international buying and continued transactions in the FOB export market.