August Tipping Point for Oil Prices Looms Amid Ongoing Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

ADNOC's Executive Vice President for Sales and Trading, Philippe Khoury, warned that August could be a tipping point for higher oil prices due to potential increases in demand combined with ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran war crisis.

Khoury noted that transit through the Strait of Hormuz will remain below pre-war levels as long as uncertainty over peace persists. The crisis has already led to significant price hikes and a major energy supply shock, with prices surging in response.

Economies have been shrinking demand, which could keep prices around $100 per barrel, but if demand recovers and the crisis extends, August may mark the beginning of a significant increase in oil prices. Khoury also emphasized that it will take until mid-2027 for supply chains to fully recover.