Australia Boosts Wheat Forecast Amid Strong Demand and Weather Conditions
Australia has revised its wheat production forecast for 2026/27 upwards to 29.9 million tons, attributing the improvement to strong winter rainfall that has significantly improved crop conditions.
The Agriculture Department's new estimate is about 12% higher than its June forecast and could make it the eighth-largest on record. However, production is still expected to fall short of last season's 36 million tons due to a decline in planted area.
Above-average rainfall in South Australia and Victoria from May to July has accelerated crop development by three to four weeks, with yield potential exceeding average levels. The improved outlook comes as international demand for Australian wheat strengthens amid reduced supplies from the Black Sea region.
The disruptions to shipments from Ukraine and Russia have led buyers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to seek alternative origins. As a result, Western Australia's wheat exports are forecast at nearly 1 million tons in September, which is 29% above the 15-year average for the month.