Australia Raises Wheat Crop Forecast Amid Global Supply Crunch

Australia's wheat crop forecast has been raised to 29.9 million tons for the 2026/27 season, marking an increase of around 12% from the previous forecast in June.

The improved forecast comes as strong winter rains have enhanced growing conditions across major grain-growing states, with above-average rainfall recorded in South Australia and Victoria from May to July.

This has resulted in crops maturing three to four weeks early, with well-above-average yield potential, according to the Department of Agriculture.

The revised forecast also coincides with rising global demand for wheat due to constrained supplies from the Black Sea region following fighting between Russia and Ukraine.

Rod Baker, an analyst with Bendigo Bank, noted that wheat exports from Western Australia are expected to reach nearly 1 million tons this month, a 29% increase above the September average over the past 15 years.