Australia's Wheat Production Forecast Revised Higher Amid El Niño Risk
Australia's wheat production forecast has been revised upward to 31 million tonnes for the 2026-27 marketing year, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). This represents a 2 million tonne increase from the previous estimate and would be the third-largest output in Australian history.
The FAS attributes the revision to improved early-season conditions, which have supported an upward revision to the national yield forecast. However, production prospects remain highly dependent on spring rainfall outcomes, with the El Niño event posing a significant downside risk to production.
Wheat exports are expected to increase to 24.5 million tonnes in 2026-27, driven by higher carry-in stocks following weaker-than-expected export demand during the previous year. Domestic wheat consumption is forecast to decrease to 6.5 million tonnes, down from the revised estimate for the previous year.
The FAS notes that Australia's elevated wheat consumption in recent years has been driven primarily by feed demand, particularly from the beef cattle sector. The continued strong export demand for Australian beef has supported expansion of the domestic feedlot industry and growth in feed grain consumption.