Azeri Light Jumps as Iran War Risks Reprice Crude Markets
Azeri Light, Azerbaijan's flagship crude oil grade, surged by $4.72 to $97.61 per barrel on Wednesday, marking a 5.08% increase as the market repriced risks related to the ongoing US-Iranian conflict.
The price jump tracks Brent crude's rise of 2.12% to $96.66 on September 2, up 15.4% in a month and 43% year-on-year. The surge is largely attributed to renewed supply-disruption fears following fresh US and Iranian strikes.
The Iran war has been described as the largest supply disruption in global oil market history, with Brent peaking at $118.35 on March 31. Analysts polled by Reuters expect prices to remain above $80 through 2026, while CMC Markets sees Brent poised to surge above $100.
Azerbaijan's budget assumed an average oil price of $65 in 2026, which now translates into a windfall for Baku, given the current market conditions. The fiscal breakeven stood at $73.17 in 2025, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data.