Azov Sea Restrictions Cut Russian Wheat Export Forecast for First Time

Russian analysts have been forced to revise their wheat export forecast for the first time due to restrictions in the Azov Sea. SovEcon, a Russian analytical firm, has reduced its 2026/27 wheat export forecast by 1.9 million tons to 44.6 million tons.

This is a significant revision as just last week analysts were revising their forecasts mainly because of weather conditions and crop prospects. However, the current situation in the Azov Sea has become a separate factor directly affecting Russia's export potential.

The barley export forecast was also lowered by 0.2 million tons to 3.2 million tons, while the corn export estimate was raised by 0.2 million tons to 3.6 million tons. This reflects expectations of strong demand from Iran via the Caspian route.

SovEcon Managing Director Andrey Sizov stated that the current situation is primarily a logistical shock rather than a supply problem. If shipping restrictions in the Azov Sea persist, larger grain volumes will remain on the domestic Russian market, putting additional pressure on local prices while supporting global grain prices.