Banks Bet on Persistent Middle East Disruptions to Keep Oil Prices High
Global oil prices are expected to remain high due to persistent shipping disruptions in the Middle East. Major banks have raised their Brent crude price forecasts, citing the ongoing issue as a key factor supporting crude prices above $100 per barrel.
Commerzbank increased its year-end Brent crude forecast to $85 per barrel from $75 previously, according to Reuters. HSBC also revised its Brent crude price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $90 and $85 per barrel, respectively, saying markets are adapting to a new reality of persistent partial disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bank of America raised its Brent crude forecast to $83 per barrel for the second half of this year and $75 for 2027, warning that further supply disruptions could push prices toward $120 per barrel. Goldman Sachs had previously increased its price forecasts for Brent and Nymex by $5 per barrel.
The upward revisions indicate that banks expect continued shipping disruptions to tighten supplies, increase the market risk premium, and support prices in the coming period while threatening a renewed wave of inflationary pressures.