Banks Boost Oil Price Forecasts Amid Prolonged Shipping Disruptions
The prolonged disruptions to Middle East shipping have tightened oil markets and driven crude prices to multi-week highs, prompting several major banks to hike their price forecasts.
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing the expectation that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year. The bank noted that if average Gulf oil output remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel.
HSBC also raised its 2026 and 2027 Brent price forecasts to $90 and $85 a barrel, respectively. According to the bank, the market is adjusting to a disrupted 'new normal' in which the Strait of Hormuz shipping route remains persistently impaired.
Commerzbank on Friday raised its year-end Brent oil price forecast to $85 per barrel from its previous forecast of $75/bbl. Bank of America also increased its Brent forecast, predicting that prices could reach $120 a barrel if there are further disruptions or $150 a barrel in the worst-case scenario.