Berenberg Sees Copper Price Fluctuations as Opportunity for Antofagasta

German bank Berenberg has upgraded Antofagasta, a Chilean copper miner, citing a favorable setup for the stock due to recent copper price fluctuations.

Berenberg believes that copper's run-up towards $15,000 a ton was driven more by tariff fears than steady end-demand. The bank notes that US import tariffs encouraged buyers to bring purchases forward and stockpile metal, leading to record-high US copper inventories even as prices slipped back to about $14,200 a ton.

However, Berenberg expects the worry of tariffs on refined copper to be implemented to fade, which could lead to destocking and a subsequent jump in spot prices. The bank argues that this would make mining stocks like Antofagasta 'jumper' due to near-term supply tightness, rather than long-run demand.

For Berenberg, the bigger catalyst for Antofagasta's growth is expected production growth in full-year 2027 and 2028, not copper price movements. The bank believes that a company-specific change like this can be a clearer driver of any re-rating than another round of $15,000-a-ton talk.