Bessent Sees Oil Prices Plummet to $40-$50 Post-Iran Conflict

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts that oil prices will fall to $40-$50 a barrel once the conflict with Iran ends. This forecast comes as crude and US diesel prices remain elevated, with Brent crude trading above $95 a barrel and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate at around $91.

Bessent argued that the relationship between oil prices and interest rates has become unusually strong, and predicted that both inflation and bond yields will fall once the conflict ends and energy costs retreat. He also stated that no Iranian crude shipments have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz to China since the US reinstated its blockade.

However, Bessent's forecast is heavily dependent on conditions that have yet to materialize: an end to hostilities, normalized energy transit, expanded production, and sufficient additional supply to create the oversupply he expects. The more immediate economic picture remains dominated by expensive oil, record diesel costs, and elevated borrowing rates.