Black Sea Conflict Drives Up Grain Prices Amid Shipping Disruptions
The ongoing conflict in the Black Sea has pushed grain prices higher due to disruptions in shipping and infrastructure. A Turkish-flagged cargo ship was recently hit, prompting Turkey to call on Ukraine and Russia to establish a mechanism for a moratorium on mutual strikes against vessels.
The UK feed wheat futures have bounced back above the £200.00/t mark, according to recent data. Despite expectations of good crops in both Russia and Ukraine, which has tempered price increases, the challenges of shipping from Black Sea ports have led to reduced export forecasts for both wheat and barley.
Weather conditions are also influencing markets, with Expana cutting its forecast of the 2026 EU-27 maize crop by 4.6 Mt from last month to 49.1 Mt, representing a 14% year-on-year decline. Traders are awaiting confirmation of US maize crop conditions ratings after periods of hot weather.