Black Sea Conflict Threatens Egypt's Wheat Supply Chain

Egypt is facing mounting pressure on its wheat supply chain due to escalating Russian-Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea ports, vessels, and grain infrastructure. This disruption has pushed global wheat prices higher.

The country relies heavily on supplies from Russia and Ukraine, which account for over 82% of Egypt's wheat imports in the first half of this year. The latest escalation affects both major exporters, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian grain infrastructure and Russian strikes against Ukrainian ports and vessels increasing risks for ships operating in the Black Sea.

The congestion around the Danube has limited alternative routes' ability to compensate for lost Black Sea capacity. Egyptian importers are already facing higher costs, with Russian 12.5% wheat offered at approximately 15,000 Egyptian pounds (US$298.48) per metric ton on August 26, up from around 14,200 pounds (US$282.58) at the beginning of July.