Black Sea Disruption Sends Global Wheat Prices Soaring

Global wheat markets are being disrupted by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Russia. The two countries account for approximately 28% of projected global exports, which is enough to influence prices worldwide.

The current situation is not a repeat of the 2022 crisis, as Ukraine now operates its own maritime corridor and world wheat inventories remain substantial. However, revisions elsewhere are offsetting much of the lost Black Sea volume.

The market is pricing access to reliable export tonnes, with less dependable Black Sea flows forcing buyers to compete for cargoes elsewhere and transmitting the disruption across the wider market.