Black Sea Disruptions Set to Redistribute 22-23 Million Tons of Grain
Disruptions to grain exports from the Black Sea region could lead to a significant reshaping of global trade flows, analysts warn.
If the war and shipment disruptions persist through the end of the year, other exporting countries will have to replace large volumes of Ukrainian and Russian grain.
Estimates suggest that around 15 million tons of wheat and 7-8 million tons of corn could shift to alternative suppliers, leading to a total redistribution of 22-23 million tons of grain among other global exporters.
The European Union would be the first choice for importers due to its geographical proximity to the Black Sea region, but drought and deteriorating crop prospects are limiting Europe's ability to supply additional wheat volumes required by the market.