Black Sea Grain Disruptions Set to Drive Global Prices Higher
Disruptions to grain exports from Ukraine and Russia's Black Sea ports are set to drive up global prices, even if actual export volumes remain steady. The two countries account for approximately 28% of global wheat exports and about 10% of corn exports.
Analysts warn that the mere risk of delayed shipments through the Black Sea is enough to trigger price increases. Attacks on export infrastructure and civilian vessels have already raised premiums for wheat and corn, making them more expensive for buyers worldwide.
According to StoneX, Argentina stands out as a potential beneficiary of these disruptions. The country's record corn harvest has left it with ample grain supplies, while its new wheat crop is also expected to perform well. Government cuts to agricultural export taxes have further improved Argentine grain competitiveness on the global market.
Brazil could also benefit from increased demand, but its ability to fill the gap is limited due to strong domestic corn consumption and stock-building for the next season, which reduces its exportable surplus and makes Brazilian grain less competitive.