Black Sea Grain Exports at Risk Amid Rising Shipping Disruptions

The Black Sea shipping risks are on the rise due to the ongoing importers' wait for Russian and Ukrainian grain. The restrictions on vessel movements in the Sea of Azov, imposed after Ukrainian drone attacks on commercial shipping, have led to a substantial share of Russian grain cargo being redirected toward the deep-water terminals of Novorossiysk and Taman in the Black Sea.

This resulted in a surge in truck and rail deliveries, exposing bottlenecks in the inland logistics network that underpins Russia's position as the world's leading wheat supplier. Around a quarter of Russia's seaborne grain exports used to move through the shallow waters of the Sea of Azov.

The Russian authorities have pushed exporters to reroute grain from southern production areas by road and rail to the larger Black Sea ports, but this has led to congestion at terminals such as NZT and KSK in Novorossiysk and ZTKT in Taman. The port of Kavkaz, previously used to transship grain from smaller Azov vessels onto larger ships, closed almost immediately after the July restrictions.

The attacks have also reached Black Sea infrastructure, including facilities linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium near Novorossiysk. Russian rail operators are considering higher tariffs, and exporters must either absorb or pass on rising logistics costs. Alternative outlets exist but offer little relief at scale.