Brazil Braces for Record Wheat Imports Amid Domestic Production Decline

Brazil's wheat imports are expected to rise significantly in the upcoming year due to a decline in domestic production. According to Safras & Mercado, the country's wheat crop is forecast at just 5.9 million tons for the 2026/27 season.

This would result in Brazil relying heavily on foreign supplies, with imports potentially reaching nearly 9 million tons. The supply situation is particularly tight in Paraná, Brazil's largest wheat-producing state and the center of the country's milling industry.

The state's crop is forecast at 2.2 million tons, while annual milling demand is estimated at 3.85 million tons, leaving a potential deficit of around 1.6 million tons. El Niño poses an additional risk to the new crop as it could bring excessive rainfall to southern Brazil.

Brazil's reliance on foreign supplies is increasing amid limited domestic stocks and higher prices. The average import price of wheat reached $241.4 per ton in early August, up 4.1% year-on-year.