Brazil's Federal Tax Revenue Surges to Record High on Oil Prices

Federal tax revenue in Brazil rose by 7.72% in real terms to R$264.4 billion in June, driven primarily by high oil prices. This marks a new record for the month since records began in 1995, adjusted for inflation. Over the first six months of the year, federal tax revenue reached R$1.58 trillion, up 6.63% from the same period last year.

The Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ) and Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL) saw a significant increase in revenue, rising by 20.4% to R$33.2 billion in June compared to the same month last year. The government introduced a 12% tax on crude oil exports this year as part of measures to offset revenue losses from fuel subsidies.

XP economist Tiago Sbardelotto expects a gradual slowdown in revenue growth due to moderating oil prices and weaker economic activity, but still predicts revenue growth above the historical average. BTG Pactual economist Fábio Serrano agrees that tax revenue remains strong, driven by the combination of high oil prices, resilient economic activity, and recent tax measures.