Brent Crude Forecasts Rise as Middle East Supply Disruptions Persist

Citi and ANZ have increased their Brent crude price forecasts due to ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Citi raised its third-quarter 2026 forecast to $86 per barrel, citing the unsustainable current situation, which includes a U.S. blockade of Iran and reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank expects renewed dealmaking or other developments to allow the waterway to reopen in the fourth quarter.

Citi predicts that a reopening of the Strait would leave the oil market with an estimated surplus of 3 million to 4 million barrels per day, compared to about 2 million barrels per day previously. ANZ estimates the conflict will remove 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion barrels of Persian Gulf supply in 2026, with losses exceeding 2 billion barrels by the end of October.

ANZ also raised its short-term Brent crude forecast to $95 per barrel, stating that the market is entering a delicate adaptation phase as inventories decline and further demand destruction will be needed to rebuild stocks.