Brent Crude Forecasts Soar as Middle East Supply Disruptions Continue

Citi and ANZ have increased their price forecasts for Brent crude due to ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East. Citi raised its third-quarter 2026 forecast to $86 per barrel, citing unsustainable current conditions including a US blockade of Iran and reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

ANZ also upgraded its short-term Brent forecast to $95 per barrel, stating that the market is entering a delicate adaptation phase as inventories decline. The bank expects further demand destruction will be needed to rebuild stocks.

Citi estimates that if the Strait reopens in the fourth quarter, it would leave the oil market with an estimated surplus of 3 million to 4 million barrels per day, compared to about 2 million barrels per day previously.