Brent Crude Oil Prices Expected to Remain High Amid Global Supply Deficits
Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) has forecasted that Brent crude oil prices will remain elevated in the fourth quarter of 2026, reaching as high as US$100 per barrel. This prediction is based on widening global supply deficits and escalating risks to oil flows through key Middle Eastern chokepoints.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane in the region, has seen traffic collapse to below 10% of pre-war levels since July to September 2026. The disruption has raised concerns over the availability of alternative crude export routes, with exports from Yanbu falling to a six-month low of 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.9 million bpd in the preceding three months.
HLIB also pointed out that Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometre East-West Pipeline was temporarily shut following drone attacks. The pipeline has a total capacity of seven million bpd, with five million bpd available for exports and two million bpd supplying domestic refineries.