Brent Crude Predicted to Reach $95-$100 by Year-End Amid Global Supply Deficits

Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) is predicting that Brent crude will remain elevated in the fourth quarter of 2026 due to widening global supply deficits and escalating risks to oil flows through key Middle Eastern chokepoints.

The firm believes Brent could reach US$95 to US$100 per barrel by year-end, raising its 2026 price assumption to US$90 per barrel from US$80 previously. This prediction is based on several factors, including severe disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic, rising threats in Bab el-Mandeb, and attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

HLIB points out that Brent had surged past US$100 a barrel on September 10 as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over simultaneous disruptions at key oil chokepoints. The firm notes that Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometre East-West Pipeline was temporarily shut following drone attacks, raising concerns over the availability of alternative crude export routes.

The disruption has resulted in exports from Yanbu falling to a six-month low of 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.9 million bpd in the preceding three months. Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to below 10% of pre-war levels since July to September 2026.

HLIB also points to signs of a recovery in China's crude imports as another upside risk to Brent prices. China's crude imports rose 22% month-on-month in July and a further 6% in August to 37.9 million tonnes, despite weak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and softer domestic oil demand.