Brent Crude Prices Soar Above $100 as Major Banks Model $120 Scenario

Brent crude oil prices have reached $101 per barrel, up almost 30% since early August due to concerns about prolonged disruption to Persian Gulf exports.

The attacks on shipping have pushed Brent above $100 for the first time in a long while, and Wall Street is now modeling scenarios where it reaches $120. However, Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end Brent forecast to $90 from $80, warning that a more severe outcome remains possible.

Average Gulf production in 2027 would need to remain 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels for Brent to exceed $120, according to Goldman's commodities team. This is not their base case, as they see buffers from inventories, alternative pipelines, and oil moving through less visible channels.

The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline by about 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026 due to elevated fuel costs and disrupted trade. Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, notes that 'supply tightness supports prices, but demand destruction can cap the upside if crude remains elevated for too long.'