Brent Crude Soars Amid US-Iran Conflict: Can It Reach New Highs?
The ongoing US-Iran conflict has driven a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude futures reaching $100 and WTI crude futures at $90. Both benchmarks have reclaimed their early-June highs.
The market's focus is shifting from the conflict itself to its duration, which is becoming a key factor influencing oil prices. According to JPMorgan's Global Commodities Research team, if the Middle East conflict lasts for one month, Brent crude's monthly average price is expected to remain around $94/barrel. If it extends to three months, the price could rise to $114/barrel.
The institution notes that every additional month of supply disruptions will result in a $7 to $8 increase in Brent's monthly average price. The US fuel market will also face pressure, with national average gasoline prices potentially breaking above $4.50/gallon if risks escalate further.