Brent Crude Soars on Hormuz Tensions, Geopolitics Takes Center Stage

Oil prices rose on Monday as tensions between the US and Iran escalated, causing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to slow sharply. The breakdown in diplomacy has restored a geopolitical premium across crude markets, pushing Brent crude futures up 1% to $89.40 a barrel.

The immediate driver remains the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping activity has slowed significantly. Only five commodity vessels crossed the strait on Saturday and none were recorded on Sunday, compared with 31 the previous weekend.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects crude to stay broadly within a $70-$100 range while the Hormuz impasse persists, with constrained Middle East exports putting a floor under prices but weaker demand limiting the upside.