Brent Crude Struggles to Reach $100 Amid Ongoing Supply Disruptions

Global oil benchmark Brent crude has been affected by recent supply disruptions due to the US-Iran conflict, but it remains below $100 a barrel. According to Argus, crude oil shipments from Middle East producers have decreased significantly since the Iran war began seven months ago.

Rystad Energy's Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti noted that while 8-9 million barrels per day had been flowing through Hormuz in the week before fighting erupted again on August 30, the daily moving average is now around 4-5 million barrels. This puts Brent at a 'fair' price of $95, he said.

Gulf producers have found alternative routes to mitigate some of the earlier shortfall. Saudi Aramco resumed loadings from its Ras Tanura port in August, and exports from Egypt's Sidi Kerir hit 2.139 million bpd in August, more than double June volumes.

Non-OPEC producers like the US, Canada, and Guyana are set to increase output by a combined 1.4 million barrels per day this year, partly filling the shortfall. However, Russia has downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low, which may reduce its exports.