Brent Crude to Hold Steady at $80s Until US Elections

Oil prices are expected to remain stable until the US elections, according to Anas Alhajji of Energy Outlook Advisors. He forecasts that Brent crude will stay in the $80s during this period, with current volatility driven more by supply losses in the Black Sea than the Strait of Hormuz.

Alhajji disagrees with demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration, stating that the decline in oil demand is limited to around 300,000 barrels per day. He attributes this limited decline to refining issues caused by constrained supplies of medium sour crude, which are being disrupted by both Hormuz and Black Sea disruptions.

For India, which imports over 80% of its oil needs, Alhajji emphasizes the importance of expanding strategic petroleum reserves. He suggests that India could invite Gulf states to fund and build this capacity, pointing out that the current reserves are too small relative to the country's economy and projected growth.