Brent Crude to Trade at $80-$90 Until Iran Conflict Clarity

Goldman Sachs has forecasted that Brent crude will remain in an $80-$90 per barrel range until there is greater clarity on either a new U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or a significant escalation in their ongoing conflict. The investment bank estimated the fair value of spot Brent crude at around $80 per barrel, indicating that oil markets are currently pricing in only a modest geopolitical risk premium.

Brent crude traded near $85 per barrel as mixed signals from the United States and Iran regarding negotiations to end their five-month-old conflict continued to cloud the market outlook. Despite easing into the low-to-mid $80 range after the United States delayed planned strikes on Iran, physical oil market conditions have continued to tighten.

Goldman Sachs noted that global visible oil inventories declined by 6.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, driven by lower oil flows from the Gulf and Red Sea, reduced Russian exports, and stronger crude imports across Asia.