Brent Nears $100 as US-Iran Conflict Threatens Oil Supplies
The global oil market is bracing for another surge in prices as tensions between the US and Iran escalate, threatening to disrupt already tight supplies. Brent crude has risen to near $100 a barrel, with some analysts predicting that it could move decisively above this level if more oil is taken off the market.
According to Katona, geopolitical risk premiums are currently driving up prices, but these can disappear quickly if Washington and Tehran step back from further escalation. However, she warns that the physical market is already tight, with a fall of around 410 million barrels in observed oil inventories since the war began and an expected global supply deficit of 1.8 million b/d in the third quarter.
The latest escalation has renewed concerns about oil supplies from the Gulf, particularly as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted. US forces carried out strikes along Iran's southern coast, while Iran responded with attacks on American military positions in the region.