Brent Price Forecast Pushed Back to Summer 2027 Amid Ongoing Disruptions

Analysts at Berenberg have revised their oil price forecast, pushing back their $75 Brent call to summer 2027. The change comes as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting global energy supplies and driving up prices.

Oil prices ended August surprisingly stable given the scale of geopolitical disruption. WTI oil prices in US dollars closed Friday at $83.44, almost unchanged on the day and around 4% lower over August.

Berenberg had previously assumed a return to pre-war pricing by the end of this year, but now expects this to last well into 2027. The bank's new assumptions are in line with the futures curve, which suggests a prolonged period of high oil prices.

The forecast change has significant implications for consumers and the economy as a whole. Berenberg warns that natural gas is now around 45% above late-April levels, while drought and disrupted grain exports threaten further food-price pressure.