Brent Price Paths Revised Higher Amid Tight Markets

ING's Warren Patterson has revised his oil forecasts higher due to tight Brent and refined product markets. The base case sees Brent at $80/bbl in the fourth quarter, while optimistic and pessimistic scenarios span $75-104/bbl.

The Persian Gulf producers are increasingly willing to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz and offer more barrels outside it. However, tracking remains difficult due to vessels switching off transponders during transit.

US officials estimate flows near 10m b/d, while shipping trackers put them at 4-8m b/d, with estimates recently edging higher.