Brent Stays Firm at $80 as Oil India and ONGC Gain Favor

Analysts at JM Financial predict that Brent crude will remain elevated at around $80 a barrel over the next 12 months, despite oil supply recovering. This higher crude-price environment is expected to favor upstream producers Oil India and ONGC.

JM Financial has retained its 'Buy' rating on both Oil India and ONGC, with target prices of Rs 560 and Rs 300, respectively. The analysts cited the expansion of Oil India's NRL refinery capacity from 3 million tonnes per annum to 9 million tonnes per annum by the end of FY27E as a key growth driver.

Oil India is also seeing a robust crude output growth trend since Q4FY26, with crude output expected to reach 4 million tonnes in FY27E. The company's gas output is expected to rise to around 4 billion cubic meters by FY28-29E from 3.2 billion cubic meters in FY26.

JM Financial has retained its 'Reduce' rating on HPCL, BPCL and IOCL, citing an unfavourable risk-reward profile. The analysts estimate that OMCs are making around Rs 4.5 per litre in EBITDA from auto fuel, which is Rs 3.5 per litre below the historical average of Rs 8 per litre.