Canada's Pipeline Ambitions Hinge on Oil Sands Expansion

Canada's pipeline ambitions are facing uncertainty as oil sands companies resist committing to significant production expansions due to climate policies and long-term demand concerns.

At least six new pipeline projects are underway or proposed in Canada, aiming to increase export capacity by 45% or 2.25 million barrels per day by 2035.

However, filling these pipelines would require a near-doubling of the current annual average growth rate of Canadian oil supply, which is a challenging task considering the ongoing uncertainty surrounding climate policies and global demand.

Pipeline operator Enbridge has postponed plans for a second phase of its Mainline pipeline expansion due to customers failing to commit to capacity increases, while Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources have not yet accelerated their production increase plans.