Canada's Pipeline Boom Could Unlock Up to 3 Million Barrels Per Day in Oil Production

According to Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), new pipelines and expansions in Canada could enable up to 3 million barrels per day of additional oil production in western Canada by the end of the 2030s.

This is due to an estimated 1 million barrels per day of additional firm capacity that could be incorporated through optimizations of existing infrastructure, expansions of transport systems, and the development of the Prairie Connector-Bridger project.

The Prairie Connector-Bridger project has a high probability of moving forward, with customer transport commitments for approximately 465,000 barrels per day over a 20-year period. The West Coast Oil Pipeline ranks second among proposed new pipelines, with a capacity of over 1 million barrels per day.

With sufficient transportation infrastructure, EIR forecasts that Western Canadian Select (WCS) will maintain a differential of approximately between $12 and $15 per barrel compared to West Texas Intermediate (WTI). This would reduce the likelihood of logistical constraints putting pressure on Canadian oil prices, allowing production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) to increase by approximately 200,000 barrels per day per year until 2035.

The anticipated expansion of the oil sands is expected to add 1.3 million barrels per day of production until 2035, and additional demand for condensates could increase by approximately 500,000 barrels per day by the mid-2030s.