Canadian Wheat Production Forecasted to Decline by 13% in 2026-27
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture has forecast a smaller Canadian wheat crop for the 2026-27 marketing year. According to the agency, production is expected to decrease by 13% compared to last year's record harvest. The projected output for this year stands at 34.6 million tonnes, down from the previous year's 39.9 million tonnes.
The decline in planted area is attributed to above-average rainfall and lingering cold temperatures in the Prairie Provinces, where most of Canada's spring wheat is grown. This led to delayed emergence and a potential reduction in overall yields. However, local crop reports indicate that despite some setbacks, 23% of Saskatchewan's spring wheat crop was rated as excellent, while 68% was in good condition.
Despite the challenges, durum wheat planting was not delayed, and the FAS projects exceptional yield in southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta. This bodes well for Canadian wheat exports, which are forecast to fall from last year's record outgo of 29.9 million tonnes to 27.9 million in 2026-27.
The weakening Canadian dollar has also made exports more expensive, but analysts expect it to recover due to a narrowing policy gap between federal banks and a projected GDP rebound.