Canola Market Swings on War and Weather
The canola market has been experiencing extreme volatility due to various factors including war in the Middle East and Ukraine-Russia, as well as weather conditions in Canada.
November canola futures reached a high of C$838.90 per tonne on July 24, the highest point for the front month contract since July 2023.
The conflict in the Middle East had crude oil trading near its strongest levels since the war began, but a pause in fighting sent oil prices lower, only to rebound again.
Attacks between Russia and Ukraine have disrupted shipping through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, with wheat experiencing the largest reaction to the news.
While geopolitics are at play, analysts note that underlying fundamentals have not disappeared, with weather concerns starting to heat up in the Prairies potentially affecting yields.
Farmers are concerned about heat blasting, which could cut into yields, and temperatures were above warning levels across much of the southern Prairies in late July.