Carney's Popularity Threatens Alberta Separatist Movement

Alberta's separatist movement is facing a new challenge in its bid for independence from Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney's growing popularity and a recent oil pipeline deal between Ottawa and Alberta have changed the calculus for many voters ahead of the province's October referendum.

A new Leger poll puts Carney's support at 49% in September, up three points from a month earlier. This widens the gap over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, which Leger put one point lower, at 33%. Much of Carney's growing support is due to U.S. President Donald Trump's taunts against Canada, both in matters of trade and sovereignty.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Carney that includes a promise to build a new one-million-barrel-per-day pipeline to the B.C. coast, among other energy-related policies and targets. The roughly $40-billion project still needs to overcome several hurdles before it is completed.

Some Alberta separatists say that Carney's efforts to appease the province haven't convinced the movement's core supporters, but may be enough to nudge more neutral voters away from outright separation.