CBN Seen Holding Rates Through 2026 Amid Inflation Concerns

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged through the rest of 2026, despite calls for monetary easing. Analysts believe that persistent inflation risks linked to global oil prices and domestic energy costs outweigh any need for a rate cut.

Economists point to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, higher crude oil prices, and mounting domestic cost pressures as reasons for the CBN's caution. Brent crude prices have climbed above $100 per barrel, pushing up shipping and insurance costs, while Nigeria faces increased pressure on foreign exchange from a sharp rise in refined petroleum imports.

Development economist Ken Ife said it's too early to talk about easing the Monetary Policy Rate because the inflation risk is far too high. He noted that refined petroleum import licences have risen by 207 percent, increasing demand for foreign exchange and adding to domestic price pressures.

Afrinvest Consulting Limited managing director Abiodun Keripe also expects the MPC to maintain its current policy stance through the remainder of the year. He said the recent moderation in headline inflation and resilient domestic economic activity justify maintaining current policy settings while authorities assess whether inflation is easing on a sustained basis.