CBRT Sticks with 37% Rate Amid Oil Price Surge
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) kept its policy rate unchanged at 37% in its latest interest rate decision, as oil prices rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since May. The CBRT also left the interest rate corridor unchanged and gave no clear guidance on the path for interest rates.
Investment firm Is Investment said the CBRT was pleased with the decline in underlying inflation trend but preferred to wait and see how long the upward pressure from wars in the Middle East would affect energy and food prices. Despite this, it maintained its forecast for 100-basis-point cuts at both the Oct. 22 and Dec. 10 meetings.
BBVA Research expected the CBRT to feel more comfortable lowering real interest rates once pressure from energy prices eased. It predicted that if oil prices fell below $90 a barrel ahead of the Oct. 22 meeting, annual inflation could decline to around 30%, creating room for a 100-basis-point policy rate cut.
Another assessment from Alnus Investment viewed the CBRT's statement on high energy prices as hawkish, suggesting rate cuts may not be possible under current conditions.